Spectacular success of «The Black Swan», one of the best-sellers of the «New York Times» and «Business Week»

Article of SYLVIANE ZEHIL, published in l'Orient-le Jour on 13 August 2007

Since its publication last April, the latest work of the Lebanese Nassim Nicolas Taleb, The Black Swan, witnessed a spectacular worldwide success. Appearing in the category of «with ideas» and considered as a «non-vulgarized essay with a thousand references», this book on «the impact of the great improbability» and incertitude comes at the head of best-sellers of the New York Times, for the thirteenth consecutive week. It is classified number one of the Business Week and selected among the best books for the year 2007 by Amazon.com. The philosophical approach of the topics with humoristic connotations has yielded interest at all levels: journalistic, academic, philosophical, scientific, political, economic and financial. The Black Swan comes down like an enormous slab stone provoking large scale reverberations. Shall it be perceived in the next Pullitzer Prize Pulitzer?

The Black Swan is a «technical book, somewhat hybrid, a scientific book that I disguise in literary fashion. Just like Proust, I invent fictitious characters that emerge in the middle of the book to torment the reader. I also address  anecdotes to the reader at the center of discussions», confesses with malice Nassim Taleb. Reflection of his personal of our representation of the world. « My book is a road map on the world that we do not comprehend and in which the links among previsions, actions and consequences are not very well developed, explains the author. The Black Swan is a geographic map of domains with black swan. Wars, technology, economy and markets are unpredictable. I played the narrative and the metaphor up to the limit.»

Mediocristan and Extremistan

Chance and uncertainty are themes that fascinated since childhood this philosopher of sciences and history, mathematician and statistic expert. «We are fooled by chance», exclaims Nassim Taleb, who launched the theme of the «black swan» in his first work entitled Fooled by Randomness, published in twenty four languages and which keeps on yielding benefit. For the author, the war of Lebanon and September 11 are «the perfect black swan». But why the Black Swan? Great admirer of the philosopher, economist and historian David Hume, Nassim Taleb lays out his thought : «Before the discovery of Australia , people never saw a black swan. They were never led to believe that swans can only be white. In fact, one example is enough to destroy years of confirmation. My black swan has no feathers. First of all, it is an unexpected event not well understood, based on knowledge. It is also an event with major consequences. However, although prospectively, these events seem unpredictable, they may seem perfectly predictable retroactively.»

Since 1975, at the age of 15, when civil war broke out, the author observed and studied the world surrounding him. The idea of representing the historical world and comprehension of history completely dominate his reflection. In order to master his subject, he spent six years studying the biology of perception. « This idea is fundamentally psychological for understanding the world. Why is it important that we understand so little the world we cannot predict and which we think that we understand? What are the neurobiological mechanisms convincing us that we understand more than we actually do? » wonders Nassim Taleb. « It is precisely here that lies a great part of the black swan», says further. In order to understand this book, the author invites you on a trip to Mediocristan and Extremistan, two domains of the black swan. « Mediocristan expresses itself by sampling from one thousand individuals to whom we add the largest person in the world. The average does not change. At the outset, if we add the richest person in the world, the average of wealth shall grow. The domains insensible to the black swan constitute part of the Mediocristan category, where we find false experts. The economic domains are part of Extremistan.»

«Overcausation» or narrative fallacy

The second aspect of the book is the mechanism of « overcausation » or narrative fallacy. « These are mainly the properties of history that cause what we call “overcausation”, or how does history fool us by “overcausation” phenomena. » « History is much more clear in our memories and in books rather than in empirical reality. This is also applicable to financial markets. We have difficulties in perceiving the effects with the naked eye without linking them to a cause », explains Nassim Taleb. How can we behave towards the black swan? « First of all, we should clearly distinguish between the real and false experts », he warns. « A cook or a dentist are real experts. An economist is not an expert, a politician certainly not, and neither a financial analyst. The greatest charlatans are historians or historiographers (history analysts) who find causes to historical events. Those who write the best are not necessarily those who understand the best. »

Destroy the European culture of the Century of Lights

The Black Swan starts with the Lebanese war and ends with an essay to destroy all the European culture of what we call the Century of Lights, which was « a destroyer for modern thought ». Without having the genius of  Abou Hamid Al-Ghazali that he considers as a « great skeptic of causality and the greatest thinker of all times », Nassim Taleb manages to explain « that we misconceive that science has led to the progress of the world ». In fact, he « perceives things upside down». For the author, all discoveries in medicine and technology are the fruit of chance. In medicine, most remedies were discovered by accident, such as Viagra and the remedy for cancer. In technology, the laser, computer and Internet, three dominant technologies, were not expected at the beginning to revolutionize the world. «All these technologies and all these remedies are black swans.» These affirmations provoked a lifting of shields from certain American scientists. Favorably received by entrepreneurs « because it includes the technology », by psychologists, neurologists and the military, this book endured severe attacks on behalf of statistic experts and economists « because the author expressed the desire to destroy their profession ». « I wanted to close the departments of economy in America , exclaims Nassim Taleb, because if the Food and Drug Administration supervised the analysts de Wall Street , it would throw them in prison. » He estimates having a great chance to be attacked by the journal of the American Statistical Association which dedicated its latest issue to turn his theories into derision. Result? «They managed to increase the sale of my book.»

Everything begins and ends in Amioun

Much welcomed in England and greatly criticized by Nobel prize winners, such as Robert Angel for «his central theories», The Black Swan has been the major subject of the international press. His work has left a great impact, notably on the Governor of the Central Bank of England and historian Neil Ferguson from Oxford and Harvard, the latter considering that the author « has destroyed all historical tradition since Herodotus ». Far from sleeping on his laureates, Nassim Nicolas Taleb has proceeded to write the third part of the trilogy that shall be entitled « The sacred and the empirical », on the issue of the platonic crust or the difference between objects well discernable intellectually and those that our spirit cannot manage to conceive because we do not have enough intelligence for that, founded on the Anti-Platonism of Al-Ghazali. « I truly created a philosophical system. I spent twenty years establishing a menu which ought to translate the absence of knowledge in specific actions. In other words, how can we live and live well in a world we are unable to understand. » How does this philosopher-historian-statistic expert with a teasing sense of humor describe himself, who has been a brilliant trader in Wall Street, better known under the name of NNT? «As someone who has a very simple idea. I am located in several domains, a mixture of philosophy, statistics, biology, psychology, economy, mathematics and historiography. I spent twenty years perfecting and polishing my idea by giving logical and empirical foundations that coat it.»

Professor of statistics at the London Business School where he never goes and also at New York University where he goes « just for the coffee », he is often invited to give courses and participate in debates. « I am a writer. I write scientific papers », he proudly exclaims. He lives in seclusion between Larchmont ( New York ) and Amioun ( North Lebanon ) his « favorite place », mentioned elsewhere ten times in his work. For Nassim Nicolas Taleb, « everything begins and ends in Amioun ». The photos of his village are posted on his website. « Between Amioun and New York , I prefer Amioun, except that I feel much more bored there », he confesses.